Modeling
Why model?
Glaciology is not a branch of science where we have the privilege of large-scale, controlled experiments. Instead, we largely rely on numerical models to test hypotheses and make predictions. Models of varying complexity are an integral part of most our research.
Ice-flow modeling
Modern ice-flow models can help us gain a more quantitative and detailed understanding of the ice sheets. For example, they can help us understand basal conditions or project future behavior at individual glaciers. However, most models do not leverage all the available data for an area; they are simply not equipped to take in all the various types of information we might possess. Thinking about new ways to compare models and data is one of the main ways we are using models. We also think about ways to improve models, particularly in their representation of rheology and buttressing (how ice shelves hold back ice upstream).
Fabric modeling
Fabric is the collective orientation of the hexagonal crystal that compose glacier ice. As ice flows, it gains preferred orientation fabrics since the grains start to align. Ice is easier to deform in some directions than others, like a deck of cards, so fabric has a strong effect on ice flow. We work on methods to more accurately simulate how fabric develops, to make models of fabric more computationally efficient, and to incorporate the effect on flow in large-scale models.
Recent modeling publications
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Lilien, Ranganathan, and Shapero (2026)
Effect of the Flow-Law Exponent on Ice-Stream Sensitivity to Melt
Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 131(3), e2025JF008726. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JF008726
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Lilien, Alley, and Alley (2025)
The effect of melt-channel geometry on ice-shelf flow
Journal of Glaciology, 71, e73. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2025.36